How hard was the race?
A hardness index for every omnium since 2017 built only from what was knowable beforehand, a field builder to score any start list on the same scale, and a selection view that reads each rider's results against the strength of the field they came in.
Race hardness index
How hard was each omnium, judged only on what was knowable at the time — and, by rider, how hard the omniums each rider has raced in? The index combines the field strength (each rider's form from their omniums before that date, recency-weighted, with debutants given a modest default), the strength of the top five, the average speed of the bunch races, and the laps gained in the points race. 100 is the hardest omnium in the database for that sex, 0 the softest. Hover a bar for the components.
By rider ranks the riders with the best average finish in the chosen competitions (top 8–20, or all with three or more omniums) and shows the range of hardness they have raced in — the bar runs from their softest to their hardest omnium, the marker is the average, and the number is how many they have ridden. One omnium's field lists the starters of a chosen omnium ranked by the form they brought in, with where they finished. Field strength is a percentile score: a rider who has been finishing 3rd in fields of 21 carries 0.9, one finishing mid-field 0.5, a debutant about 0.35. Early-database events (2017) have thin histories, so their field strength is understated — the "known riders" count in the hover tells you how much to trust it. Speed is the mean of scratch, tempo and points-race average speeds from the timing sheets; laps gained are from the final classification.
Build a field
Pick any set of riders and get a predicted hardness for that start list, on the same 0–100 scale as the real omniums above but using only what you can know before the gun: each rider's current form and their pedigree — results weighted towards the hard races, so a win in a 25-hardness field counts half a win in a 100. Speed and laps are left out because a field that hasn't raced yet has neither. Use the quick picks or search and tick riders; put everyone in if you want to see what the hardest possible omnium would look like.
| Rider | Form | Pedigree in hard races | Strength | Omniums | Last raced | Avg hardness raced |
|---|
Form: recency-weighted percentile finish across the rider's omniums (half-life two years), shrunk towards mid-field for riders with few starts. Pedigree: the same percentile multiplied by √(hardness/100) of the omnium it was achieved in. Strength = 0.6 × form + 0.4 × pedigree (pedigree rescaled to the same average as form). Field hardness = 0.7 × z(mean strength) + 0.3 × z(top-five strength) against the real-omnium distribution, so a fantasy field can score above 100.
Selection view: result against the field
For a chosen rider, every omnium they rode: how hard the field was, where their prior form said they should finish, and where they did. A rider who keeps beating their expected position in hard fields is the one to pick; a good result in a soft field is a good result in a soft field.
| Omnium | Hardness | Field | Form going in | Expected | Actual | vs expected |
|---|
"Form going in" is the rider's recency-weighted percentile from earlier omniums; "expected" is where that form ranks them among the riders who started. Positive "vs expected" means they beat their form. Expectations for a rider's first omnium use the debutant default and should be read loosely.